Retention in Care and Virological Failure among Adult HIV-Positive Patients on First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment in Maputo, Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: Access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) is increasingly available worldwide; however, the number of patients lost to follow-up and number of treatment failures continue to challenge most African countries. OBJECTIVES: To analyse the retention in clinical care and the virological response and their associated factors of HIV-1 patients from the Maputo Military Hospital (MMH). METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted to analyse data from patients who started ART between 2016 and 2018 in the MMH. RESULTS: At the end of 12 months, 75.1% of 1247 patients were active on clinical follow-up and 16.8% had suspected virologic failure (VL > 1000 copies/mm3). Patients younger than 40 years old were more likely to be lost to follow-up when compared to those aged >50 years old, as well as patients who were unemployed and patients with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3. Patients with haemoglobin levels lower than 10 g/dL and with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3 were more likely to have virological failure. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified clinical and sociodemographic determinants of loss to follow-up and in the development of virological failure for HIV-positive patients in clinical care in the MMH. Therefore, HIV programs must consider these factors to increase the screening of patients at high risk of poor outcomes and particularly to strengthen adherence counselling programs.

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Human Papillomavirus Vaccines for Preadolescent Girls in Mozambique: A Modelling Study.

Mozambique has one of the highest rates of cervical cancer in the world. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was introduced in 2021. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of the current HPV vaccine (GARDASIL® hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) and two other vaccines (CECOLIN® and CERVARIX®) that could be used in the future. A static cohort model was used to estimate the costs and benefits of vaccinating girls in Mozambique over the period 2022-2031. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted from a government perspective. We conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Without cross-protection, all three vaccines averted approximately 54% cervical cancer cases and deaths. With cross-protection, CERVARIX averted 70% of cases and deaths. Without Gavi support, the discounted vaccine program costs ranged from 60 million to 81 million USD. Vaccine program costs were approximately 37 million USD for all vaccines with Gavi support. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN was dominant, being cost-effective with or without Gavi support. With cross-protection and Gavi support, CERVARIX was dominant and cost-saving. With cross-protection and no Gavi support, CECOLIN had the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio. Conclusions: At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at 35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, HPV vaccination is cost-effective in Mozambique. The optimal vaccine choice depends on cross-protection assumptions.

Spatio-temporal evolution of mortality in Cape Verde: 1995-2018.

Located in West Africa, Cabo Verde is a low income country, with significant gains in health indicators. Mortality is an important demographic factor. Its analysis provides essential statistical data for the design, implementation and evaluation of public health programs. The propose of this work is to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of mortality in Cabo Verde between 1995 to 2018. This is an observational, quantitative study that performs demographic analysis of mortality data from the Ministry of Health of Cabo Verde. Specific mortality rates from standardized causes were calculated considering the population of the country as a reference in the year 2010 and also the standardized rate for all causes on each island, aiming at comparing the islands. During the period under analysis, the number of deaths in men was always higher than that of women. The main causes of death were diseases of the circulatory system and with a higher incidence in women. São Nicolau, Brava, and Santo Antão islands have mortality rates, higher than the national level (2010-2018). The main cause of premature death in women as identified as diseases of the circulatory system, while in men it is injuries, trauma, poisoning and external causes. There was a 72% decrease in the mortality rate due to unclassified symptoms and clinical signs, and an increase in respiratory diseases and tumours. With the exception of diseases of the circulatory system, mortality rates in men are higher than in women for all the considered causes. A decrease in specific mortality rates by age group is expected for both sexes, with a greater gain in men in the younger age groups. With these data, it is intended to alert health decision-makers about the best strategies to be defined in the reduction of mortality in the country.

Factors Associated with Underutilization of Maternity Health Care Cascade in Mozambique: Analysis of the 2015 National Health Survey.

Maternity health care services utilization determines maternal and neonate outcomes. Evidence about factors associated with composite non-utilization of four or more antenatal consultations and intrapartum health care services is needed in Mozambique. This study uses data from the 2015 nationwide Mozambique's Malaria, Immunization and HIV Indicators Survey. At selected representative households, women (n = 2629) with child aged up to 3 years answered a standardized structured questionnaire. Adjusted binary logistic regression assessed associations between women-child pairs characteristics and non-utilization of maternity health care. Seventy five percent (95% confidence interval (CI) = 71.8-77.7%) of women missed a health care cascade step during their last pregnancy. Higher education (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.46-0.91), lowest wealth (AOR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.2-3.7), rural residency (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.1-2.2), living distant from health facility (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.1-1.9) and unknown HIV status (AOR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.4-2.7) were factors associated with non-utilization of the maternity health care cascade. The study highlights that, by 2015, recommended maternity health care cascade utilization did not cover 7 out of 10 pregnant women in Mozambique. Unfavorable sociodemographic and economic factors increase the relative odds for women not being covered by the maternity health care cascade.

Factors Associated with Caesarean and Peripartum Complications at Southern Mozambique's Rural Hospitals: A Cross-Sectional Analytical Study.

Information about factors underlying peripartum complications is needed to inform health programs in Mozambique. This retrospective study covered the period from January 2013 to December 2018 and was performed at three rural-district hospitals in southern Mozambique, aiming at assessing factors associated with caesarean and peripartum complications. Data were extracted by clinical criteria-based audits on randomly select clients' files. Logistical regression was used to identify factors associated with peripartum complications. Amongst 5068 audited files, women mean age was 25 years (Standard Deviation (SD) = 7), gestational age was 38 weeks (SD = 2), 25% had "high obstetric-risk" and 19% delivered by caesarean. Factors significantly associated with caesarean included being transferred [Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) =1.8; 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) = 1.3-2.6], preeclampsia [aOR (95%CI) = 2.0 (1.2-3.3)], age [aOR (95%CI) = 0.96 (0.93-0.99)] and "high obstetric-risk" [aOR (95%CI) = 0.54 (0.37-0.78)]. Factors significantly associated with neonatal complication included mother being transferred [aOR (95%CI) = 2.1 (1.8-2.6)], "high obstetric-risk" [aOR (95%CI) = 1.6 (1.3-1.96)], preeclampsia [aOR (95%CI) = 1.5 (1.2-1.8), mother's age [aOR (95%CI) = -2% (-3%, -0.1%)] and gestational age [aOR (95%CI) = -8% (-13%, -6%)] increment. This study identified amendable factors associated with peripartum complications in rural referral health settings. Strengthening hospitals' performance assurance is critical to address the identified factors and improve peripartum outcomes for mothers-neonate dyads.

Accounting for Sampling Weights in the Analysis of Spatial Distributions of Disease Using Health Survey Data, with an Application to Mapping Child Health in Malawi and Mozambique.

Most analyses of spatial patterns of disease risk using health survey data fail to adequately account for the complex survey designs. Particularly, the survey sampling weights are often ignored in the analyses. Thus, the estimated spatial distribution of disease risk could be biased and may lead to erroneous policy decisions. This paper aimed to present recent statistical advances in disease-mapping methods that incorporate survey sampling in the estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk. The methods were then applied to the estimation of the geographical distribution of child malnutrition in Malawi, and child fever and diarrhoea in Mozambique. The estimation of the spatial distributions of the child disease risk was done by Bayesian methods. Accounting for sampling weights resulted in smaller standard errors for the estimated spatial disease risk, which increased the confidence in the conclusions from the findings. The estimated geographical distributions of the child disease risk were similar between the methods. However, the fits of the models to the data, as measured by the deviance information criteria (DIC), were different.

Factors associated with chemsex in Portugal during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: to investigate the factors associated with the practice of sex under the influence of drugs (chemsex) among Portuguese men who have sex with men during the period of social distancing to prevent the COVID-19. METHOD: online survey applied in May 2020 to a sample of 1,301 participants living in Portugal, recruited according to Respondent Driven Sampling and via social media Facebook®. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were performed along with logistic regression to calculate adjusted Odds Ratio (ORa). RESULTS: the prevalence of chemsex was 20.2%. The likelihood of practicing chemsex increased with group sex (ORa: 28.4, 95%CI 16.93-47.49); unprotected sex (ORa: 7.1 95%CI 4.57-10.99); the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent COVID-19 (ORa: 4.2, 95%CI 2.71-6.39) and COVID-19 testing (ORa: 1.9, 95%CI 1.15-3.10). CONCLUSION: the practice of chemsex among men who have sex with men during the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal was very frequent and may support greater understanding of the role and impact of sexual behavior on the COVID-19 transmission rates and the current pandemic situation in Portugal.

Factors associated with the practice of Chemsex in Portugal during the COVID-19 pandemic / Fatores associados à prática de Chemsex em Portugal durante pandemia de COVID-19

Objective: To investigate the factors associated with the practice of sex under the effect of drugs (chemsex), among men who have sex with Portuguese men during a period of social distance by COVID-19. Method: Online survey applied to a sample of 1301 participants residing in Portugal, recruited by Respondent Driven Sampling method adapted to the virtual environment. Descriptive, bivariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to calculate the adjusted Odds ratio (ORa). Results: The prevalence of chemsex practice was 20.2%. The chance of practicing chemsex increased with the practice of group sex (ORa: 28.35, 95% CI 16.93 - 47.49); sex without using a condom (ORa: 7.09 95% CI 4.57 - 10.99); Use PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis) as a protective measure for COVID-19 (ORa: 4.16, 95% CI 2.71 - 6.39) and; with testing for COVID-19 (ORa: 1.89, 95% CI 1.15 - 3.10). Conclusions: The practice of chemsex among men who have sex with men in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal was high and can provide subsidies to understand the role and impact that sexual relations have in the current pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the country.

Objetivo: Investigar os fatores associados à prática do sexo sob o efeito de drogas (chemsex), entre homens que fazem sexo com homens portugueses durante período de distanciamento social por COVID-19. Método: Inquérito online aplicado em uma amostra de 1301 participantes residentes em Portugal, recrutados por método Respondent Driven Sampling adaptado ao ambiente virtual. Realizou-se análise descritiva, bivariada e regressão logística para cálculo dos Odds ratio ajustado (ORa). Resultados: A prevalência da prática de chemsex foi de 20,2%. A chance de praticar chemsex aumentou com a prática de sexo grupal (ORa: 28.35, IC95% 16.93 ­ 47.49); sexo sem uso do preservativo (ORa: 7,09 IC95% 4,57 ­ 10,99); Utilizar a PrEP (profilaxia pré-exposição) como medida protetiva para a COVID-19 (ORa: 4,16, IC95% 2,71 ­ 6,39) e; com realização de teste para COVID-19 (ORa: 1,89, IC95% 1,15 ­ 3,10). Conclusões: A prática de chemsex entre homens que fazem sexo com homens no período da pandemia da COVID-19 em Portugal foi elevada e pode fornecer subsídios para entender o papel e impacto que relações sexuais possuem na atual situação pandêmica da COVID-19 no país.

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak, and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer and autumn season transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Late-summer arrivals were more likely to produce large epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 11% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 95 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing large epidemics with a short peak time and vice versa. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, transmission rates, mortality rate, and the mosquito population; the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island.

Predicting dengue importation into Europe, using machine learning and model-agnostic methods.

The geographical spread of dengue is a global public health concern. This is largely mediated by the importation of dengue from endemic to non-endemic areas via the increasing connectivity of the global air transport network. The dynamic nature and intrinsic heterogeneity of the air transport network make it challenging to predict dengue importation. Here, we explore the capabilities of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to predict dengue importation. We trained four machine learning classifiers algorithms, using a 6-year historical dengue importation data for 21 countries in Europe and connectivity indices mediating importation and air transport network centrality measures. Predictive performance for the classifiers was evaluated using the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity measures. Finally, we applied practical model-agnostic methods, to provide an in-depth explanation of our optimal model's predictions on a global and local scale. Our best performing model achieved high predictive accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic score of 0.94 and a maximized sensitivity score of 0.88. The predictor variables identified as most important were the source country's dengue incidence rate, population size, and volume of air passengers. Network centrality measures, describing the positioning of European countries within the air travel network, were also influential to the predictions. We demonstrated the high predictive performance of a machine learning model in predicting dengue importation and the utility of the model-agnostic methods to offer a comprehensive understanding of the reasons behind the predictions. Similar approaches can be utilized in the development of an operational early warning surveillance system for dengue importation.

Intestinal parasitic infections in children under five in the Central Hospital of Nampula, Northern Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: Intestinal parasites are known to cause infection in humans worldwide, with higher prevalence in low- and middle- incoming countries. Children are greatly affected leading to malnutrition and subsequently to physical and cognitive development impairment. Despite the scale and importance of this issue, there are few studies conducted in Mozambique concerning parasitic intestinal infections in hospitalized children. To our knowledge this is the first published report with data on this subject from Northern Mozambique. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2012 and 2013 in 831 children, attending the Central Hospital of Nampula in Northern Mozambique. One single stool sample was obtained from each child. Socio-demographic and clinical data were also obtained. Parasitological analysis of feces was performed through direct examination and Ritchie concentration technique and Giardia duodenalis antigen detection by rapid immunochromatographic test. Modified Ziehl-Neelsen staining was used for coccidia detection. RESULTS: The global prevalence of pathogenic intestinal parasites was 31.6%. G. duodenalis (23.9%) was by far the most prevalent parasite followed by Strongyloides stercoralis (4.1%) and Cryptosporidium sp. (3.4%). Intestinal parasites were more frequent in older children (p = 0.005; aOR = 1.025). CONCLUSIONS: This work is one of the few published studies reporting intestinal parasites infection in hospitalized children. The percentage of children affected with G. duodenalis is higher than found in other studies in the African region. This highlights the need of particular attention being given to this intestinal protozoan and its resistance to water treatment, as well as to environmental health and personal hygiene.

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach.

The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.

Association between length of residence and overweight among adult immigrants in Portugal: A nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of immigrant population in Portugal few studies have analyzed the patterns of overweight/obesity in this subpopulation. The aims of this study are: (i) describe and compare the prevalence of overweight between immigrants and natives in Portugal; (ii) analyze the association between length of residence and overweight among adult immigrants in Portugal. METHODS: A cross-sectional study (2005-2006) in a representative sample of the Portuguese population from national territory, including the Autonomous Regions of Azores and Madeira. The final sample comprised 31,685 adult participants (≥19 years old), of whom 4.6% were immigrants. Country of birth was used to determine immigrant condition. Logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the association between overweight (dependent variable) and length of residence (exposure), adjusting for all covariates in the study. A 5% confidence level and 95% CI were considered. RESULTS: The percentage of immigrants that are overweight [44.9% (95% CI: 42.3; 47.5)] was lower than for natives [52.8% (95% CI: 52.2; 53.4)]. The migrant condition, after adjusted for sociodemographic variables, was not associated with overweight [OR 1.004 (95% CI: 0.998; 1.010)]. Among immigrants, being women [OR 0.585 (95% CI: 0.583; 0.587)], not married [OR 0.784 (95% CI: 0.781; 0.787)] and with a higher education [OR 0.481 (95% CI: 0.478; 0.483)], are probably protective factors of being overweight. Adjusting for other factors, the odds of being overweight for a long-term immigrant (≥15 years) was 1.3 times higher [OR 1.274 (95% CI: 1.250; 1.299)] than for the newcomers (<4 years). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of overweight was higher for natives than immigrants. Length of residence (≥15 years) was positively associated with prevalence of overweight, among adult immigrant population. In the future, understanding dietary patterns and acculturation process may be important for health immigrant studies.

Evaluation of salt content in school meals / Avaliação do conteúdo de sal em refeições escolares

OBJECTIVE: High blood pressure is a major rick factor for cardiovascular disease, and it is closely associated with salt intake. Schools are considered ideal environments to promote health and proper eating habits. Therefore the objective of this study was to evaluate the amount of salt in meals served in school canteens and consumers' perceptions about salt. METHODS: Meals, including all the components (bread, soup, and main dish) were retrieved from school canteens. Salt was quantified by a portable salt meter. For food perception we constructed a questionnaire that was administered to high school students. RESULTS: A total of 798 food samples were analysed. Bread had the highest salt content with a mean of 1.35 g/100 g (SD=0.12). Salt in soups ranged from 0.72 g/100 g to 0.80 g/100 g (p=0.05) and, in main courses, from 0.71 g/100 to 0.97 g/100g (p=0.05). The salt content of school meals is high with a mean value of 2.83 to 3.82 g of salt per meal. Moreover, a high percentage of students consider meals neither salty nor bland, which shows they are used to the intensity/amount of salt consumed. CONCLUSION: The salt content of school meals is high, ranging from 2 to 5 times more than the Recommended Dietary Allowances for children, clearly exceeding the needs for this population, which may pose a health risk. Healthy choices are only possible in environments where such choices are possible. Therefore, salt reduction strategies aimed at the food industry and catering services should be implemented, with children and young people targeted as a major priority. .

OBJETIVO: Considerando que a pressão arterial elevada constitui um dos maiores fatores de risco para as doenças cardiovasculares e sua associação ao consumo elevado de sal, bem como o fato de as escolas serem considerados ambientes de excelência para fomentar a aquisição de bons hábitos alimentares e promover a saúde, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o conteúdo de sal presente nas refeições escolares e a percepção dos consumidores sobre o sabor salgado. MÉTODOS: Foram recolhidas refeições nas cantinas das escolas, analisando-se todos os seus componentes (pão, sopa e prato principal). A quantificação de sal foi realizada com um medidor de sal portátil. Para a avaliar a percepção dos consumidores foi desenvolvido e aplicado um questionário aos alunos das escolas preparatórias e secundárias. RESULTADOS: Foram analisados 798 componentes de refeições. O pão apresentou o valor mais elevado de sal, com média de 1,35 g/100 g (SD=0.12). O conteúdo de sal nas sopas apresentou média de 0,72 g/100 g a 0,80 g/100 g (p=0,05) e, nos pratos principais, de 0,71 g/100 a 0,97 g/100 g (p=0,05). Em média, as refeições escolares disponibilizaram entre 2,83 e 3,82 g de sal por porção servida, o que representa de duas a cinco vezes mais em relação à dose diária recomendada para crianças e jovens. Para a maioria dos estudantes, o sabor das refeições foi percebido como sendo nem salgado nem insosso, o que parece demonstrar adaptação à intensidade/ quantidade de sal consumida. CONCLUSÃO: Escolhas alimentares saudáveis e adequadas só são possíveis se sustentadas por um ambiente que as facilite. Considerando o impacto que o consumo de sal tem na saúde, em particular nas doenças crônicas, a implementação de estratégias de redução de sal - nas indústrias, serviços de catering e restaurantes -, é imperativa, em particular direcionada para o público mais jovem. .